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Modeling State Cashflows During the Pandemic

The COVID 19 pandemic brought about nearly unprecedented economic and fiscal challenges. To help the State of California ensure that it could meet its financial obligations over the spring and summer, we worked with the State Controller to develop projections that accounted for the impact of the pandemic-induced economic effects and the delayed filing dates for income and sales tax payments. The model we developed projected daily cashflows and allowed the Controller to simulate a range of alternative scenarios, including a deeper or more prolonged recession, continued reductions in taxable sales, and ongoing high unemployment rates. Our work helped the Controller determine that the state’s reserves were sufficient to allow the state to meet all of its financial obligations without the need for external borrowing.

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